Grapevine

Why Bitcoin's 'Uptober' Won't Be A Smooth Ride: It's The Election, Silly

Economist and macro trader Alex Krüger voiced caution about the sudden market optimism, coined as "Uptober", highlighting the looming uncertainty of the U.S. election year and its potential impact on market volatility.

What Happened: Krüger highlighted the unexpected bullishness following the last FOMC meeting but emphasized that it was two weeks ago, and the situation has since evolved.

Cryptocurrency Price 7-Day Gains +/- Bitcoin BTC/USD $61,085 -3.9% Ethereum ETH/USD $2.452 -6.5% Solana SOL/USD $145.98 -2.9% Dogecoin DOGE/USD $0.1063 -2.7% Shiba Inu SHIB/USD $0.00001662 +10.4%

Despite ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, Krüger pointed out that the major uncertainty lies in the upcoming U.S. elections. He stated, "Who wins does make a big difference. Particularly so if the Democrats win a clean sweep."

In response to the reactions of crypto twitter, Krüger also stated that if "Trump does well in the last month crypto should outperform." He believes nothing material will change and Bitcoin could be between $62,000 to $65,000 going into election night.

Why It Matters: Krüger warned that speculators do not favor uncertainty, and historically, October has been the most volatile month in election years, with equities showing slightly negative returns. He dismissed the notion that a positive September guarantees a positive October as a “spurious correlation.”

He did acknowledge that strong payrolls this coming Friday could boost equities, given the current “good news is good news” regime. But he advised that the prudent time to press and hold is after the elections, possibly starting on election night itself.

The JOLTs Job Openings for August on Tuesday came in at 8.04 million compared to the 7.64 million expected and 7.71 million reported in prior month. The non-farm payrolls data on Friday are expected to come in at 144,000 for September compared to the 142,000 reported for August.

What’s Next: The influence of Bitcoin as an institutional asset class is expected to be thoroughly explored at Benzinga’s upcoming Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.