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Israel Adesanya aims to become a three-time middleweight champion at UFC 305 when he takes on current champion Dricus du Plessis. “DDP” will be making the first defense of the title he won against Sean Strickland in his most recent fight while Adesanya is looking to rebound from losing the belt to Strickland in a shocking upset at UFC 293.

UFC 293 was supposed to feature Adesanya defending the belt against du Plessis, but du Plessis was not ready to compete after defeating Robert Whittaker in a title eliminator two months prior. That opened the door for Strickland to upend things at 185 pounds.

Now, Adesanya and du Plessis face off after a rivalry that has featured some unfortunately ugly moments in which the two fighters, both African-born, have exchanged words over which is the “real African.” Adesanya was born in Nigeria before his family moved to New Zealand while du Plessis is South African-born and still fights out of the country.

The co-main event sees former flyweight title contender Steve Erceg taking on former interim title challenger Kai Kara-France in what could be the most high-action fight on the card.

With so much happening on Saturday night, let’s take a closer look at the full fight card with the latest odds before we get to our staff predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities.

UFC 305 fight card, odds

Israel Adesanya -120 vs. Dricus du Plessis (c) +100, middleweight title

Steve Erceg -160 vs. Kai Kara-France +135, flyweights

Mateusz Gamrot -350 vs. Dan Hooker +275, lightweights

Jairzinho Rozenstruik -220 vs. Tai Tuivasa +180, heavyweights

Carlos Prates -350 vs. Li Jingliang +275, welterweights

Junior Tafa -130 vs. Valter Walker +110, heavyweights

Josh Culibao -140 vs. Ricardo Ramos +120, featherweights

Terez Bleda -150 vs. Casey O’Neill +125, women’s flyweights

Jack Jenkins -700 vs. Herbert Burns +500, featherweights

Tom Nolan -1200 vs. Alex Reyes +750, lightweights

Song Kenan -175 vs. Ricky Glenn +145, welterweights

Stewart Nicoll -240 vs. Jesus Aguilar +200, flyweights

UFC 305 picks, predictions

du Plessis (c) vs. Adesanya du Plessis du Plessis Adesanya Adesanya du Plessis Erceg vs. Kara-France Kara-France Erceg Erceg Erceg Kara-France Gamrot vs. Hooker Gamrot Gamrot Gamrot Gamrot Gamrot Rozenstruik vs. Tuivasa Tuivasa Rozenstruik Rozenstruik Tuivasa Tuivasa Prates vs Jingliang Prates Prates Prates Prates Prates

du Plessis vs. Adesanya

Campbell: If the 35-year-old Adesanya proves unable to hurt du Plessis and actively force him to disengage, this could be a difficult night for the former champion. Not only is Adesanya dealing with the demands of age and an 11-month layoff that is the longest of his UFC career, he must deal with the mental toll of having lost two of his last three fights (which left many questioning him getting this title shot). Adesanya was stopped by Alex Pereira and widely outpointed by Sean Strickland after being dropped in the opening round. Considering du Plessis, a small betting underdog, can also bring the fight to the ground by using his massive build as a gigantic middleweight, there are enough reasons to believe that Adesanya’s window is closing fast in his bid to become the UFC’s first three-time middleweight king. And all signs have pointed in recent years to right now being DDP’s time.

Brookhouse: It’s entirely reasonable to think Adesanya should win, and possibly win easily. Were this the Adesanya of a few years ago, I’d consider that something of a lock, while expecting the fight to look similar to Adesanya’s humiliation of Paulo Costa. Like Costa, du Plessis is a heavy-handed pressure-based fighter, though du Plessis applies his aggression a bit more effectively. But it’s hard to shake the image of Adesanya looking like a man who couldn’t figure out how to pull the trigger against Sean Strickland his last time out. Time catches up especially hard to preternaturally gifted strikers and that could have been the fight where Adesanya went through a transformation similar to that of late-career Roy Jones Jr. Until I’m given reason to believe that was a one-off showing and not the new normal for Adesanya, I lean toward du Plessis putting so much pressure that he just brute forces his way to a successful title defense.

Erceg vs. Kara-France

Mahjouri: This fight feels like two flyweight contenders trending in opposite directions. Erceg opened many eyes with a spirited loss to Alexandre Pantoja in a UFC title fight that came sooner than anyone expected. I anticipate he’s learned valuable lessons that will benefit him against the flyweight elite. Erceg’s technical striking and strong submission game should be enough to overwhelm Kara-France, who is suspectable of losing by KO, submission or decision. Kara-France’s power is always a threat but Erceg’s too smart to get caught slacking. Give me Erceg by decision.

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