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With the U.S. election less than a month away, the country and its corporations are staring down two drastically different options. For airlines, banks, electric vehicle makers, health-care companies, media firms, restaurants and tech giants, the outcome of the presidential contest could result in stark differences in the rules they'll face, the mergers they'll be allowed to pursue, and the taxes they'll pay. During his last time in power, former President Donald Trump slashed the corporate tax rate, imposed tariffs on Chinese goods, and sought to cut regulation and red tape and discourage immigration, ideas he's expected to push again if he wins a second term. In contrast, Vice President Kamala Harris has endorsed hiking the tax rate on corporations to 28% from the 21% rate enacted under Trump, a move that would require congressional approval. Most business executives expect Harris to broadly continue President Joe Biden's policies, including his war on so-called junk fees across industries. Personnel is policy, as the saying goes, so the ramifications of the presidential race won't become clear until the winner begins appointments for as many as a dozen key bodies, including the Treasury, Justice Department, Federal Trade Commission, and Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. CNBC examined the stakes of the 2024 presidential election for some of corporate America's biggest sectors. Here's what a Harris or Trump administration could mean for business:

Airlines

The result of the presidential election could affect everything from what airlines owe consumers for flight disruptions to how much it costs to build an aircraft in the United States. The Biden Department of Transportation, led by Secretary Pete Buttigieg, has taken a hard line on filling what it considers to be holes in air traveler protections. It has established or proposed new rules on issues including refunds for cancellations, family seating and service fee disclosures, a measure airlines have challenged in court. "Who's in that DOT seat matters," said Jonathan Kletzel, who heads the travel, transportation and logistics practice at PwC. The current Democratic administration has also fought industry consolidation, winning two antitrust lawsuits that blocked a partnership between American Airlines and JetBlue Airways in the Northeast and JetBlue's now-scuttled plan to buy budget carrier Spirit Airlines. The previous Trump administration didn't pursue those types of consumer protections. Industry members say that under Trump, they would expect a more favorable environment for mergers, though four airlines already control more than three-quarters of the U.S. market. On the aerospace side, Boeing and the hundreds of suppliers that support it are seeking stability more than anything else. Trump has said on the campaign trail that he supports additional tariffs of 10% or 20% and higher duties on goods from China. That could drive up the cost of producing aircraft and other components for aerospace companies, just as a labor and skills shortage after the pandemic drives up expenses. Tariffs could also challenge the industry, if they spark retaliatory taxes or trade barriers to China and other countries, which are major buyers of aircraft from Boeing, a top U.S. exporter. — Leslie Josephs

Banks

Big banks such as JPMorgan Chase faced an onslaught of new rules this year as Biden appointees pursued the most significant slate of regulations since the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. Those efforts threaten tens of billions of dollars in industry revenue by slashing fees that banks impose on credit cards and overdrafts and radically revising the capital and risk framework they operate in. The fate of all of those measures is at risk if Trump is elected. Trump is expected to nominate appointees for key financial regulators, including the CFPB, the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation that could result in a weakening or killing off completely of the myriad rules in play. "The Biden administration's regulatory agenda across sectors has been very ambitious, especially in finance, and large swaths of it stand to be rolled back by Trump appointees if he wins," said Tobin Marcus, head of U.S. policy at Wolfe Research. Bank CEOs and consultants say it would be a relief if aspects of the Biden era — an aggressive CFPB, regulators who discouraged most mergers and elongated times for deal approvals — were dialed back. "It certainly helps if the president is Republican, and the odds tilt more favorably for the industry if it's a Republican sweep" in Congress, said the CEO of a bank with nearly $100 billion in assets who declined to be identified speaking about regulators. Still, some observers point out that Trump 2.0 might not be as friendly to the industry as his first time in office. Trump's vice presidential pick, Sen. JD Vance, of Ohio, has often criticized Wall Street banks, and Trump last month began pushing an idea to cap credit card interest rates at 10%, a move that if enacted would have seismic implications for the industry. Bankers also say that Harris won't necessarily cater to traditional Democratic Party ideas that have made life tougher for banks. Unless Democrats seize both chambers of Congress as well as the presidency, it may be difficult to get agency heads approved if they're considered partisan picks, experts note. "I would not write off the vice president as someone who's automatically going to go more progressive," said Lindsey Johnson, head of the Consumer Bankers Association, a trade group for big U.S. retail banks. — Hugh Son

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