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The side effects of large-scale forestation initiatives could have serious consequences for water availability, a pioneering study has found.

The research, led by scientists at the University of Sheffield in collaboration with NCAR, WWF and University of Washington, has raised significant concerns about the potential unintended impacts of large-scale forest expansion as a nature-based solution to climate change.

Published in Biogeosciences, the study revealed how expanding forest cover—while beneficial for capturing carbon dioxide—may lead to water scarcity and impact water security in some of the world's most vulnerable regions. Central Africa, a region with low adaptive capacity to climate change, could see water availability reduced by 15%

The study found that large-scale forestation could result in a surface cooling of up to 2°C at low latitudes by 2100, driven by a 10% increase in evaporative cooling. However, this cooling effect comes with trade-offs.

Building on previous work examining the atmospheric and radiative effects of forest expansion, this study focuses on the implications for water availability. The research found that in certain regions, particularly in the tropics, plant water stress more than doubles when forest expansion is implemented, raising concerns about the feasibility of these initiatives and their potential to compromise water security.

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