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The forecast at the beach today is cloudy, with a chance of sharks. At least, that's the forecast that researchers at UC Santa Barbara would like to be able to provide. They're leading a project to predict when and where great white sharks show up near a beach.

The goal is to develop forecasting tools that can help predict what times of year, what times of day, or what ocean conditions are likely to be more or less sharky. The team set out to understand what fine-scale factors affect shark behavior at all life stages. "Predicting when sharks will turn up is something of a holy grail in shark science," said Douglas McCauley, a professor in UCSB's Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Marine Biology. "But even initial insights can help us make better decisions: Is today a better day for surfing or beach volleyball?"

A shark's schedule

Some things in nature are easy to predict: The ebb and flow of the tides, the emergence of cicadas, the changing of the fall foliage. But white shark movement is hard.

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