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Hydraulic failure in tropical environments is expected to increase, according to new research published in New Phytologist. As weather patterns change and temperatures rise, plants will need to adapt in order to survive. Hydraulic failure occurs when more water is lost from transpiration than is taken in through the roots. If uncorrected, the xylem loses conductivity and the plant will not survive.

"Increases in hydraulic failure rates will likely increase mortality and vegetation turnover. Over extended periods, this will alter the vegetative composition, forcing more drought-tolerant species to become a more significant proportion of forests," said Zachary Robbins, a research scientist at Los Alamos National Laboratory and corresponding author of the paper.

"The long-term risk is that we may be losing natural land carbon stores during a time when we need to reduce atmospheric carbon."

The paper is the first to use the FATES-HYDRO model to assess the risk of hydraulic failure, which is an important piece of the puzzle for scientists to understand the impacts of changing climates. The results show that, while rising temperatures in tropical climates generally result in short-term productivity improvements, the long-term effects lead to significantly increased mortality rates.

Previous studies have relied on the Penman-Monteith-Leuning model, which does not account for two important variables: increased carbon dioxide and vapor pressure deficit. Robbins' study analyzed plant trait assemblages to determine which might perform well under future climate conditions. Robbins and his team used 16 Earth-system models to test different traits under potential future scenarios.

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