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Rand weakens as markets weigh up a possible Trump victory following shooting

The dollar held steady on Monday and cryptocurrencies jumped as investors weighed up what the attempted assassination of former US President Donald Trump might mean for his chances in the 2024 elections and the possible impact on markets.

In the aftermath of the shooting, investors narrowed the odds of a Trump victory. Such an expectation has in the past strengthened the dollar as traders have calculated its would lead to looser fiscal policy and extra trade tariffs.

The rand took a knock on Monday and was trading at around R18.19/$ in early afternoon trading, from R17.94 before the shooting. The local currency is still 1% stronger over the past month.

"There's still a lot of ground to be covered between now and November and a lot of uncertainty about what the Federal Reserve will do in the coming months," Jane Foley, senior FX strategist at Rabobank, said.

Markets are now fully pricing a quarter-point rate cut from the Fed in September after data last week showed consumer prices fell on a monthly basis for the first in four years in June.

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