Grapevine

Q&A: Why do election polls seem to have such a mixed track record?

Political polls underestimated the support for Donald Trump and overstated the backing for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election. Four years later, the polling correctly anticipated Joe Biden's win over Trump, but both national and statewide polls saw a much wider edge than he ultimately received

A task force report by the American Association of Public Opinion Research called the 2020 race the profession's biggest misfire since 1980, when polls forecast a close race and instead Ronald Reagan beat incumbent Jimmy Carter by a landslide.

The Gazette spoke with John Anzalone, Biden's chief pollster in 2020 and a Resident Fellow at the Institute of Politics this fall, about what happened in the past two elections and how the field has tried to make adjustments amid shifts in the nation's political dynamics.

A co-founder of The Wall Street Journal poll, Anzalone also worked for the presidential campaigns of Hillary Clinton (2016) and Barack Obama (2008 and 2012). His firm, Impact Research, has conducted polls for Vice President Kamala Harris's campaign, but he is not personally involved in that work. Interview has been edited for clarity and length.

What went wrong in the last two elections, and has the industry made any course corrections?