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New survey reveals doubt, and hope, that world will achieve climate targets

How hot is it going to get? This is one of the most important and difficult remaining questions about our changing climate. The answer depends not only on how sensitive our climate is to greenhouse gases, but also on how much carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and other greenhouse gases we as a civilization choose to emit over coming decades.

The results of our recently published study show that most of the responding climate experts believe our planet will likely exceed the 1.5 °C and "well-below 2 °C" warming targets agreed upon by the international community.

In fact, the median estimate was 2.7 °C by 2100, which is roughly what is expected if the world's nations fail to implement new policies consistent with their targets and pledges, and instead only maintained existing levels of action.

To put it plainly, this could be a catastrophic outcome for humanity. We've already seen devastating consequences like more flooding, hotter heat waves and larger wildfires, and we're only at 1.3 °C above preindustrial levels—less than halfway to 2.7 °C.

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