Technical analyst Benjamin Cowen suggests the Bitcoin BTC/USD market may be repeating patterns from 2019, cautioning against expectations of an imminent bull run.
What Happened: In a detailed analysis of the Pi Cycle Top indicator on his podcast, Cowen explored its historical accuracy and potential implications for the current market cycle. He noted similarities between the current market structure and 2019 when Bitcoin briefly surged above a key moving average before pulling back.
He also drew parallels to 2016, noting similar behaviour in the moving averages. He stressed the value of analyzing such indicators during market downturns, when “cooler heads prevail,” rather than during euphoric uptrends.
Cowen highlighted a trend of diminishing peaks in the indicator over successive market cycles, raising the possibility that it may not cross the traditional threshold this cycle.
Why It Matters: Looking ahead, Cowen suggested the market could continue to follow the 2019 pattern. However, he cautioned that price action could start recovering before the indicator bottoms out.
While maintaining a cautious outlook, Cowen emphasized the need for patience and continued observation of market trends. He concluded by encouraging viewers to stay informed and make decisions based on multiple data points rather than relying on any single indicator.
Despite recent market volatility, Cowen remains in the "2019 camp," expecting a pattern similar to that year rather than the mania phase seen in 2021.
What’s Next: The influence of Bitcoin as an institutional asset class is expected to be thoroughly explored at Benzinga’s upcoming Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.
