Successful Bitcoin BTC/USD trading is not about being bullish or bearish, but rather about understanding the probabilities of market movements, according to a prominent crypto trader.
What Happened: Pseudonymous trader CJ outlined in a detailed social media post that he anticipates Q4 to be largely bullish, despite the current downward trend.
The trader pointed out that the market is simply navigating a dip before an expected upside break, saying, "Forget bullish/bearish. Think in terms of probabilities."
He identified the July range as a bullish range but noted that the market was consolidating below a set of equal highs on the premium side of the range.
In July, Bitcoin prices hovered around the $68,000 mark and for a majority portion of the trade remained at higher levels.
Why It Matters: CJ's analysis provides a nuanced view of the Bitcoin market. He predicts a potential reversal zone at $65,000-$67,700 and suggests that the market could be much higher by November or December 2024. However, he also warned of a possible sell-off, with no real sign of strength at present.
"I'm thinking $56,000-$57,000 as a decent area to look for longs, but at the same time $49,000 isn't off the table," he stated. CJ believes that the market condition will definitively shift once it reclaims $70,000, but a good near-term start would be at $64,000.
He concluded by summarizing his current bias: for the higher time frame he expects an upside to a new all-time high by the end of the year, a downside to $56,000-$57,000 (maybe $49,000) in the medium term, and an upside from $60,000 to $62,500 in the short term.
What’s Next: The influence of Bitcoin as an institutional asset class is expected to be thoroughly explored at Benzinga’s upcoming Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.
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