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Given the number of record-setting heat waves around the world in recent years, an international team of researchers, including a Lancaster University statistician, investigated if the rate of global warming has increased significantly, or "surged," over the last half century at statistically detectable rates.

The new study, published on October 14 in the journal Communications Earth & Environment, and led by scientists at UC Santa Cruz in the U.S., confirms the broad consensus that the planet is getting warmer, but at a statistically steady rate—not at a sufficiently accelerated rate that could be statistically defined as a surge.

Recent years have seen record-breaking temperatures and heat waves globally: Data show 2023 was the warmest year since global records began in 1850—by a wide margin—and that the 10 warmest years in the historical record have all occurred in the past decade (2014–2023).

Global average surface temperature, by NOAA

These record temperatures have spurred discussion and debate about whether the rate of global warming has increased, with some arguing that it has accelerated over the past 15 years. However, the team's findings demonstrate a lack of statistical evidence for an increased warming rate that could be defined as a surge.

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