In the build-up to his government's first budget, Prime Minister Keir Starmer has been setting expectations low. It will be "painful," he has warned, and a "difficult trade-off" will have to be made because of the economic inheritance left by the last government.

The UK will have to "accept short-term pain for long-term good." In practice, this means cutting back on state support, holding off on infrastructure projects and potentially raising taxes (albeit, Starmer promises us, not income tax, VAT, or national insurance) in order to "fix the foundations" of the nation.

It is somewhat uncommon to hear politicians talk this way. That's because, as recent research has shown, those politicians often believe voters care much more about the near future than the far future. Asking people to sacrifice their short-term interests in pursuit of some long-term goal is, apparently, not much of a vote winner.

That assumption can have significant consequences. Researchers have demonstrated, for example, that governments under-invest in natural disaster preparedness because voters do not seem to reward such prospective spending at the ballot box. The impact of future catastrophes such as earthquakes, hurricanes, and floods is worsened as a result. The same is true, as we now know only too well, for pandemics.

My latest research confirms that voters do prefer policies that reap benefits in the immediate future rather than waiting for a promised bright future. However, we should not see this preference for near-term outcomes as an all-consuming, selfish short-termism.

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