What's going on in the coffee industry? Roasters and cafe operators are faced with rising costs that, when passed onto consumers, threaten to bring to a shuddering halt almost 30 years of continuous, at times dizzying growth.

In the last few weeks Giuseppe Lavazza, head of the eponymous family-led Italian mega-roaster, has suggested that the price for his products in the UK might have to rise by 20%-25% over the coming year, in addition to the 15% hike that consumers have already experienced during the previous 12 months.

Coffee chains are pursuing store closure programs to the point that the number of branded outlets actually fell last year, while Club Pret—the subscription service offering up to five free barista made drinks daily for a £30 monthly fee—is being withdrawn in favor of one that offers five half price drinks for £10.

The price of a medium latte has risen by over 30% since 2021 bringing the once-unthinkable £5 flat white ever closer. Indeed Lavazza's flagship London store already charges £5.50.

The key driver behind these developments is the rising cost of raw green coffee. Two types of coffee are commonly bought by commodity roasters. Arabica is the original, more flavorsome but delicate plant. Robusta is a hardier but harsher tasting form, principally used in manufactured products such as instant coffee, and to bulk out cheaper blends, which now constitutes over 40% of world production.

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