The European Union aims to be carbon-neutral by 2050 as part of the comprehensive Green Deal that was agreed upon four years ago. However, an analysis of the policy documents outlining the practical measures of the Green Deal shows that it will decrease carbon emissions in Europe, but also increase carbon emissions outside the EU.

This increase is more than double the amount of carbon emissions saved by the Green Deal. This analysis was published in Nature Sustainability by an international team of scientists led by Klaus Hubacek, Professor of Science, Technology and Society at the University of Groningen.

The European Green Deal is a set of policies intended to fully decarbonize Europe by 2050, but it also includes measures for clean energy production and ecological restoration. Hubacek and colleagues from the United States and China carried out full supply-chain analyses of the policy documents underlying the Green Deal.

Their conclusion is that the Green Deal in its current form will lead to an increase of 244.8% in emissions in countries outside the EU compared to the Green Deal's carbon reduction goal in the land, land use change, and forestry sector within EU borders.

One example is the measure to increase biodiversity in Europe by planting three billion trees.

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