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Relaxing its restrictions on family size would make it more difficult for China to achieve its goal to be carbon neutral by 2060, according to a new study by UCL researchers.

The paper, published as a Policy Brief in Nature Climate Change, is the first research to analyze the impact of a country's population policies on its future carbon emissions.

Researchers estimated the carbon footprint of China's projected population under different fertility policies, including its former two-child policy, current three-child policy and a hypothetical "replacement-level" birth rate (of 2.1 children), that would maintain the country's population at its current level of about 1.4 billion indefinitely.

They found that by relaxing its fertility policies and allowing for more children, China's future population and associated carbon footprint will be greater than it would have otherwise been, making it harder to achieve its stated goal of carbon neutrality by 2060.

Senior author, Professor Zhifu Mi (UCL Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction) said, "China is one of the most populous countries and one of the largest carbon emitters in the world. Capturing the impacts of fertility policies on the country's future population and carbon emissions is crucial for its sustainable development."

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