Wildfire activity in central Siberia, Russia, has doubled in the past 2 decades, scorching vast areas of forest and releasing carbon stored in the rich soils and permafrost underneath. The Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the world, and scientists already know that the effects of climate change can exacerbate wildfires. But the specific factors driving enhanced Siberian wildfire activity aren't fully understood, making it difficult to predict future burning accurately.

In new research, Huang and team demonstrate that the rise in Siberian wildfires is related to drought, drying soils, and decreased rainfall caused by Arctic warming. In addition, they identify a potential feedback loop in which wildfires suppress precipitation in the region, further drying soils and making fires even more likely.

The research is published in the journal AGU Advances.

The authors used data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments on the Terra and Aqua satellites to track wildfire activity between 2002 and 2022 and paired them with data on wildfire smoke, regional climate, and permafrost extent. Then they used Community Atmosphere Model version 6 of the Community Earth System Model to simulate aerosol-climate interaction over Siberia.

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