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The Delaware River Basin, a coastal watershed in the Mid-Atlantic region, has a long history of severe flooding with significant socioeconomic impacts. Recent research uses a process-based modeling approach to analyze hydrometeorological (like rainfall, snowmelt, and soil moisture) conditions during flood events over the past 40 years, revealing the spatial variability of flood mechanisms across the region.

The work is published in the journal Earth's Future.

In the Upper Basin, high-elevation subbasins predominantly experience early spring floods due to rain-on-snow events, while the Lower Basin is primarily affected by floods from short, intense rainfall events with no strong seasonal pattern. Future flood projections based on climate scenarios suggest a region-wide intensification of flooding (i.e., greater peak discharge). Importantly, the anticipated shift in the Upper Basin's primary flood mechanism from rain-on-snow to intense short rainfall events, exacerbated by wetter antecedent soil moisture conditions, points to an evolving flood risk and timing landscape.

Consequently, this highlights the pressing need for adaptive flood management strategies in anticipation of these evolving conditions.

The Delaware River Basin is home to over 8 million people, many of whom live in areas at risk of flooding. In recent years, floods have caused huge losses, with three major events in 2004, 2005, and 2006 costing around $745 million in New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania. Looking ahead, the projected warmer and wetter climate in the region is anticipated to significantly intensify the severity of future flooding.

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